What to expect from the 2022 property market in Barnet
By Michael Holloway – Partner Hunters of Barnet, Estate Agents
Market Update – December 2021
For those considering a move in the New Year and living in or thinking of moving to the Barnet area, having an understanding of the current property market and how this may translate in 2022 will, I hope, be helpful and offer some confidence in planning your move.
Having lived and breathed the local Barnet property market for over 20 years, below, I’ve put together some useful insights and thoughts about what we might expect from 2022.
How did the UK property market perform in 2021
Getting the true picture of the UK property market in 2021 is surprisingly tricky, there are many sources of information that talk about property market inflation and the number of transactions. Although the majority do not present the complete picture.
Property portals publish their own property market indexes, which is based on their own data. Although interesting, this is not the complete picture, as the portals focus on information that relates to property market inflation and transactions of only the properties published on their sites.
We have therefore, gone to the source of property transaction data, which provides an accurate and complete picture of this information. You will see that we have included the source for each statistic, validating the stats we’ve published.
1). Average UK house prices – 11.8% increase
Official Government statistics
The custodians of property data is the Office For National Statistics (ONS) with data from HM Land Registry and HMRC.
The latest available UK house price index from the ONS confirms an increase of 11.8% increase in average UK house prices. The report, released in November 2021, shows the increase in house prices for the period September 2020 to September 2021, the data is provided by the HM Land Registry report for the same period. This data is not based on predictions or data samples, but on real-life transactions, so is as accurate as it gets.
Comparisons
As a useful comparison, Rightmove, in their UK property index, report the national YTD increase at 6.3%. Zoopla, in their own house price index, confirm a national increase of 6.9%.
Regionally, the South East of England shows significantly higher numbers with Rightmove reporting a 9.1% increase and Zoopla a fair amount less at 6.3%.
Whilst these are not direct comparisons, as the ONS data is to the end of September and the full year is not yet available, the probability is that we have seen a double-digit increase in the value of our homes in 2021.
2). Value of UK homes at all-time record
Also reported by HM Land Registry, average house prices have increased to an all-time record high in 2021. Here we are able to look a little closer at our part of the country, although not specifically Barnet but the South East area of England.
For England as a whole, the average house price is £287,895, that’s an 11.5% increase on the YTD from September 2020 to September 2021. For the same period in the South East region, the average house price is £370,886 up slightly more on the national average at 11.7%.
The statistics are from the HM Land Registry, house price index at September 2021.
Comparisons
The property portals offer widely varying average house prices. Rightmove reports the South East region with an average house price of £452,831.
3). Record number of home transactions in 2021
Whilst as yet there is no official number available for this, HM Land Registry are notoriously slow at publishing this data, although to be fair, at the time of writing (mid December 2021), we do still have a few weeks of 2021 to go.
The portals however have been predicting for some time that 2021 will be a record-breaking year, their predictions are for over 1.5 million property transactions. Rightmove, in their latest house price index, confirmed that we have already exceeded the highest number of completed home sales since 2007 and expect 1.5 million for 2021.
What can we expect in 2022?
With 2021 having been such a roller coaster of a ride, from the lows of the early lockdown to the frenzied buyer’s market, triggered by the stamp duty holiday, we’ve experienced for much of the latter part of the year.
2021 has been an exceptionally busy year by any standard. With record-breaking house prices and transactions. The frenetic pace of the market conditions we’ve experienced during 2021 has caused many of our clients that have wanted to move, to sit tight and wait for some normality to return.
This certainly indicates that there is some pent up supply in the market. Indeed in Rightmove’s ‘House Price Index’ they report that although currently, fully available stock of homes for sale has hit a new record low this month, valuation requests from home-owners are 19% up on this time a year ago, suggesting more people will be making a New Year resolution to move.
As the uncertainties around Corona Virus still dominate much of our thoughts, making predictions for 2022, in what is still an uncertain time, is not for the faint-hearted.
There are many property industry pundits that chance their arm at predicting future property market trends, looking back at those from last year, none of them predicted it correctly, not even close…
We’ve taken a slightly less risky approach and looked at the current influences that are likely to impact the property market, and perhaps more importantly, those local buyers and sellers.
The economy – The current economic climate is looking encouraging, and with relatively low unemployment, just about every economist from the OECD to KPMG are predicting a strong 2022. Which is always a good indicator for consumer confidence and so too for the property market.
Mortgage Interest rates – As we have already seen, the Bank of England have, for the first time in more than three years, increased interest rates in an attempt to curb inflation.
Depending on which media source you read, the Bank of England is likely to increase interest rates further at some point in 2022. The key for homeowners, and certainly for home movers, is to get moving and take advantage of the current low fixed-rate mortgages while they are still available.
Although, even with the predicted few points increase, mortgage interest rates will still be the lowest we’ve seen in most of our lifetimes.
Property supply and demand – The fierce buyer demand of 2021 has been the dominant driver for the price increases seen in 2021. It has however, also been the detractor for many homeowners marketing their homes that require an onward purchase. As they have been consistently out-manoeuvred by the power buyer.
The supply of new property to the market in 2022 is predicted by many to improve. Certainly, anecdotally, we are seeing many of our own clients preparing to market their homes in the new year, as they look to take advantage of the still strong seller’s market and low-interest rates whilst they can.
Our Christmas opening hours, for those looking during the holidays –
Christmas Opening hours
Thursday 23rd December – 9.00 – 12.00pm
Friday 24th December – Closed
Saturday 25th December – Closed
Sunday 26th December – Closed
Monday 27th December – Closed
Tuesday 28th December – Closed
Wednesday 29th December – Closed
Thursday 30th December – Closed
Friday 31st December – Closed
Saturday 1st January – Closed
Sunday 2nd January – Closed
Monday 3rd January – Closed
Tuesday 4th January – Normal hours
I would like to thank all that have worked with us and supported us this year and wish you all a Merry Christmas & Healthy Happy New Year.
Stay safe and I look forward to seeing you in 2022.
Thanks for reading
Michael Holloway – Hunters of Barnet, Estate Agents
If you are considering a move and would like some help or advice, please feel free to give me a call anytime.